The increase
in tuition fees to a maximum of
£9,000 a year has led to a "clear drop" in the number of English students applying for university
places this autumn, an independent analysis of the impact of the coalition's
controversial reform has found.
According to
the Independent Commission on Fees, there are 15,000 students expected to have
a sought a place on a degree course this academic year but did not.
The raising of fees prompted violent protests on the streets of
London and inflicted deep damage on the reputation of the Liberal Democrats,
who went into the election pledging to vote against a fee rise. Published a
week before A-level results come out, the report says that the number of
university applicants in England dropped by 8.8% this year compared with the
tally for 2010.
In addition there was a 7.2% fall in numbers of 18- and
19-year-old applicants in England between this year and 2010, the last year of
applications before the cap on tuition fees was raised.
The decline in England has not been mirrored in other parts of the
UK where fees have not been raised, and the drop can only partly be explained
by falling numbers of young people in the population, the commission says.
Students from Scotland attending Scottish universities do not pay
fees, while the Welsh assembly says it will pay fees above £3,465 for Welsh
students attending UK institutions. Fees for students from Northern Ireland are
also capped at £3,465.
About one person in 20 who would have been expected to have
applied to university this year (if the trend of increasing application rates
among English school-leavers was maintained) did not do so, the report says.
This equates to approximately 15,000 young applicants.
The commission is chaired by Will Hutton, who said;
"We're asking our young men and women to assume more debt
than any other country in the world – it's higher than the average debt in the
US. It's not clear whether those lost this year will return to the fold next
year, or [if] it's a storm warning of a worrying trend."
The commission's report says there does not seem to be a
disproportionate impact on poorer or less advantaged communities. In addition
the commission found there was no significant change in the application rate to
the most selective universities, such as Oxford or Cambridge.
The average
tuition fee at English
universities this year is £8,385, rising to £8,507 next year. UK and EU students
are entitled to take out government-backed loans to pay the fees.
Hutton said: "Although it is too early to draw any firm
conclusions, this study provides initial evidence that increased fees have an
impact on application behaviour. There's a clear drop in application numbers
from English students when compared to their counterparts in Scotland, Wales
and Northern Ireland.
"On a positive note, we are pleased to see that, at this
stage, there has been no relative drop-off in applicants from less advantaged
neighbourhoods. We will continue to monitor a range of indicators as the fee
increases work their way through the system."
A National Foundation for Educational Research survey of pupils
found tuition fees and overall university costs were the most common factors
deterring young people from studying for a degree.
However the
survey of 1,000 pupils aged 15-18, conducted this April, found that the
majority expected to go on to higher education.
Liam Burns, president of the National Union of Students, said:
"We have always said it would be a tragedy if any young person were put
off applying to or going to university because of financial concerns."
Any inquiry into the impact of fees had to look beyond
applications to explore how varying fee levels affected the choices made by
candidates from different backgrounds, Burns said.
Demand for university places still outstrips supply, and A-level
results next Thursday 16th August will trigger a scramble for places. There
were 700,000 applicants for university last year, of whom 492,030 were
accepted. So far this year, there have been more than 618,000 applications for
about the same number of degree course places.
The universities minister David Willetts said: "We do accept
that after a peak last year, applications are down from 31.6% of people
applying to university to 30.6%. That is actually still the second highest rate
of applications on record."
He told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: "We still have very
strong demand for university."
Willetts said the new system, which saw students start repaying
their fees after they had graduated and were earning £21,000 a year or more,
was fairer and "much more like an income tax".
A spokeswoman at the Department for Business, Innovation and
Skills which is responsible for universities, said: "Even with a small
reduction in applications, this will still be a competitive year like any other
as people continue to understand that university remains a good long-term
investment in their future.
"Students should not be put off going to university for
financial reasons. Most students will not have to pay upfront, and no one will
have to start paying back their student loan until they start to earn at least
£21,000 per year."
